PETALING JAYA: The new Perodua Myvi, due to be launched on June 16, will boost passenger vehicle sales this year, according to automotive analysts.
OSK Research said in a report yesterday that Perodua's revised sales forecast of 195,000 units (previously 171,750 units) this year was easily achievable due to the earlier-than-expected launch of the new Myvi.
The research firm also upgraded its Malaysian automotive total industry volume (TIV) forecast for 2011 by 4% to 597,456 units, which was a year-on-year decline of 1.3% (TIV hit an all-time high of 605,156 units last year).
OSK Research had earlier forecast a 5.1% year-on-year drop in TIV due to supply woes faced by Japanese vehicle marques after the earthquake and tsunami in March.
CIMB Research auto analyst Loke Wei Wern agreed, saying that the new Myvi could be a major driver of passenger vehicle sales.
“The sales of the Myvi have been declining over the past year, and this could be due to buyers holding back as they wait for the new model. There could be a lot of pent-up demand for the new Myvi,” he said.
Loke also pointed out the new Myvi could affect Proton Saga sales.
AmResearch concurred, saying in a report that its 2011 TIV forecast had been raised by 1.6% to 599,710 units (from 590,027 units earlier) due to the new Myvi.
OSK Research pointed out that the Myvi was still Malaysia's best selling passenger car.
“Despite being around for five years, the model remains popular amongst the youth and is typically used as a second or third car for most households,” said the report.
AmResearch said it remained bullish on APM Automotive Holdings Bhd, which has Perodua as its largest client accounting for about 30% of earnings.
The research firm maintained its “buy” call, with a fair value of RM6.60 per share on APM.
APM's share price closed yesterday lower by 9 sen to RM4.79, with 59,000 shares traded.
Meanwhile, OSK Research maintained its “sell” call, with a fair value of RM6.61 on UMW Holdings Bhd, which owns a 38% stake in Perodua.
This was despite the group's subsidiary, UMW Toyota Motor Sdn Bhd, announcing last month that vehicle production at its Assembly Services Sdn Bhd plant in Shah Alam had resumed two-shift operations as parts supply from Japan stabilised.
According to the report, Toyota Motor Corp and other Japanese automakers are likely to continue experiencing supply chain disruptions arising from power shortages during the summer as power capacity in Japan has been cut by 8% and air-conditioning demand increases.
However, the higher localisation of content for Perodua cars had cushioned the impact of supply chain disruptions.
UMW's share price closed yesterday lower by 1 sen at RM7.15, with 5,602,500 shares traded.
OSK Research also upgraded its call on MBM Resources Bhd, which has a 20% stake in Perodua, to “buy” with a fair value of RM3.80, and raised its earnings projection for the current financial year by 20.2%.
MBM's share price remained unchanged at RM3.10 at the close yesterday, with volume at 381,800 shares.